Over 200 Crypto Firms Urge Senate Vote on CLARITY Act as Galaxy Cuts Passage Odds to 60%

More than 200 crypto companies and lobbying groups sent a letter Monday urging Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to schedule a floor vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act “without delay,” according to a letter shared first with Bloomberg Government.

Signatories include Coinbase, Ripple Labs, Andreessen Horowitz, Stand With Crypto, the Blockchain Association, and the Crypto Council for Innovation. The letter lands during a week when Senate leadership is negotiating which legislation gets floor time before the August recess.

Galaxy’s 15-Point Downgrade

Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn cut his 2026 passage probability from 75% to 60% on Friday, in a research note distributed to Galaxy clients. Two compounding factors drove the cut.

“I just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 CLARITY Act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today,” Thorn wrote on X. “I said in May that the Senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened.”

The first factor is floor-time loss. A procedural vote to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act failed 47-52 on June 5, meaning the following week will be dominated by FISA legislation. The Senate also lost a week in late May to an anti-weaponization fund debate. Usable floor time before the August recess has contracted sharply.

The second factor is the absence of any visible progress on the ethics and illicit finance provisions that Democratic crossover votes require. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), one of the two Democrats who advanced the bill 15-9 in the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, has said she will not support a floor vote unless a provision covering government officials’ crypto holdings is added first. No public deal has emerged on the point.

The 60-Vote Threshold

Floor passage requires 60 votes. With Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul expected to vote no, leadership needs at least nine Democratic crossovers. Ethics and illicit finance provisions remain the central blocking points.

“I’m still optimistic but the timing matters a lot now and odds could shift wildly as the calendar progresses,” Thorn added.

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), the most comprehensive digital asset market-structure bill Congress has advanced, would divide oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The Senate Banking Committee placed it on the floor calendar as Calendar No. 423 on June 1. Thorn said two developments would push his estimate back toward 75%: a credible floor commitment from Majority Leader Thune for early-to-mid July, or visible progress on the ethics and illicit finance language.

Without a floor date, the path narrows to a September attempt, after midterm campaigning begins to drain floor time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Sen. Cynthia Lummis have both pressed for passage in the current window, with Lummis warning that the next viable legislative opportunity is “likely 2030.”